The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which traditionally relied on the Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote base, is witnessing an unexpected setback in its strongholds. Both communities appear to have shifted their support, giving the NDA a decisive advantage.

Election Commission data indicates that out of Bihar’s 39 Muslim-majority seats, the NDA is ahead in or has secured 27 constituencies. The Grand Alliance is currently leading in only six such seats. If these trends convert into final results, the Grand Alliance faces the loss of 12 seats in these areas, while the NDA stands to gain 11.

A similar trend is visible in Yadav-dominated constituencies. There are 126 seats in Bihar where Yadav voters have historically played a crucial role in securing victories for the RJD. However, this election has brought a major turnaround, with the NDA ahead in 100 of these 126 seats. The Grand Alliance trails significantly, leading in only 22 seats.

The emerging pattern suggests that Tejashwi Yadav has struggled to retain his core support base. The shifting preference of MY voters has become one of the most defining factors in this election, contributing to the NDA’s sweeping leads across the state.

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